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李克強FT撰文談經濟「硬著陸」


http://news.wenweipo.com   [2013-09-09]    我要評論

【文匯網訊】2013年9月9日,國務院總理李克強在英國《金融時報》發表署名文章《中國將給世界傳遞持續發展的訊息》。全文如下:

在國際金融危機爆發5年後的今天,在世界經濟增長緩慢的恢復過程中,新的挑戰出現在各國面前。本周即將在中國大連舉行的夏季達沃斯論壇吸引了世界的目光,人們期待從這裡獲得中國政府的信號,感受正處於轉型關鍵階段的中國經濟的力量。

有觀察人士問,中國經濟增速放緩的趨勢是否會最終導致大幅下滑,甚至「硬著陸」?中國的改革開放之路是否會因各種複雜的社會難題而脫軌?我的回答是:中國將保持經濟長期健康發展,中國將繼續走改革開放之路。

中國新一屆政府今年3月上任伊始,就明確提出把持續發展經濟、不斷改善民生、促進社會公正作為施政目標。中國已經不可能沿襲高消耗、高投入的老舊模式,而是必須統籌「穩增長、調結構、促改革」。

深化改革仍是持久動力。我們已經並將進一步通過簡政放權,推進結構改革,發展混合所有制經濟。市場能做的交給市場,社會能辦的分給社會,政府該管的管好。

我們將繼續推進行政管理、財稅、金融、價格等改革。今年夏季達沃斯論壇的主題是「創新」,我理解,這指的不僅是技術創新,更重要的是制度創新,堅持改革就是創新。

加快開放是助推器。我們將繼續支持WTO多哈回合談判進程,推動與相關國家簽署雙邊自貿協議,打造中國—東盟自貿區升級版,不斷改善外商投資的公平和法制環境。我們將積極探索擴大開放的新辦法,在上海設立自貿區實驗區就是一個重要的嘗試。

擴大內需是主攻方向。中國的一大優勢是擁有追求美好生活並且願意為之辛勤工作的13億人民,擁有巨大的國內市場。我們要努力擴大國內消費需求,包括促進信息產業發展,例如擴展寬帶和4G牌照等。

在關注消費的同時,我們也要保持合理的投資力度,重點是加快發展節能環保產業、中西部鐵路項目和市政設施建設等。

城鎮化為長期擴大內需提供巨大潛力。未來十多年,中國將有上億人口融入城市,這是極為複雜的經濟和社會變化過程,需要新的協同發展政策。雖然有許多困難,但這將成為我們縮小城鄉差距的必由之路。

服務業是新支撐點。作為最大的就業容納器,服務業為經濟轉型緩解壓力。政府將大力改進公共服務。今年我們對眾多小微企業其中大部分是服務業暫免徵收增值稅和營業稅。

中國政府明確了經濟運行合理區間的「上限」和「下限」,防止過度波動。明確「下限」是要穩增長、保就業,GDP從以前的兩位數增長到2011年的9.3%和2012年的7.7%,再平穩過渡到今年的7.5%左右,既是經濟規律的趨勢,也是主動調控的結果。明確「上限」是要防通脹,今年CPI漲幅3.5%左右。使經濟運行保持在這一合理區間,切實防範金融風險,可以給市場和社會一個穩定的預期。

今年以來,中國經濟運行穩中有進,上半年GDP同比增長7.6%;5%的調查失業率和2.4%的通脹率,均處於合理、可控範圍。

世界經濟仍然存在不確定因素。對一些發達國家推出量化寬鬆貨幣政策的預期導致大量資金回流發達市場,觸發亞洲地區多國股市、匯市大幅波動,甚至有觀察人士擔心亞洲金融動盪重演。我認為,亞洲各國從過去的經歷中汲取了教訓,大大提高了抵禦風險的能力,匯率形成機制更加靈活,外匯儲備水平普遍提高,有關貨幣互換的清邁倡議多邊化和各種雙邊金融安排為應對複雜局面提供了更好的條件,中國對此有信心。

中國仍是一個發展中國家,有自己的諸多任務和挑戰,隨著中國國力上升,將在國際事務中承擔更多的、與自身條件相符的責任和義務,與各國一道,共同促進世界和平與發展事業。我期待著,世界經濟終將柳暗花明,再度繁榮。中國經濟的升級版也將為世界經濟提供新的動力。

以下為英文原文:

Five years on from the start of the financial crisis, many countries now face new challenges as the world economy slowly recovers.

The Summer Davos Forum, which opens this week in Dalian, will be closely watched for signs of the state and strength of the Chinese economy, which finds itself at a crucial stage of transformation.

Observers ask whether China』s economic slowdown will lead to a sharp decline – or even a hard landing – andwhether our reform programme will be derailed by complex social problems. My answer is that our economy will maintain its sustained and healthy growth and China will stay on the path of reform and opening up.

Shortly after it took office in March, the new Chinese government made clear its policy was to sustain economic growth, improve people』s wellbeing and promote social equity. We can no longer afford to continue with the old model of high consumption and high investment. Instead, we must take a holistic approach in pursuing steady growth, structural readjustment and further reform.

Reform remains the driving force. We will continue to streamline government and delegate power, press ahead with structural changes and grow economic sectors under diverse ownership. Government will leave to the market and society what they can do well while concentrating on those matters within its purview.

We will advance reforms of administrative management, fiscal and tax systems, financial sectors and pricing. The theme of this year』s Summer Davos Forum is 「Meeting the Innovation Imperative」. To me this means not only technological but more importantly institutional innovation, and reform is also a way of innovation.

Opening up at a faster pace gives impetus to development. We will continue to support the Doha round of World Trade Organisation talks, work for the signing of bilateral free trade agreements, upgrade the China-Asean Free Trade Area, and provide a level playing field and a better legal environment for foreign investors. We will explore new ways to open China to the outside world, and Shanghai』s pilot free-trade zone is a case in point.

A key focus is the expansion of domestic demand. Here China enjoys one great advantage: its 1.3bn people are keen to work hard in pursuit of a better life and make up a huge domestic market. We will expand consumer demand through initiatives such as the promotion of the IT sector through the expansion of broadband and 4G licences.

While focusing on consumption, we will keep a reasonable scale of investment with priority given to energy conservation, environmental protection, railway projects in the central and western regions, and municipal facilities.

Urbanisation also offers huge potential for long-term domestic demand. Of the people living in the countryside, more than 100m are set to be absorbed into cities over the next decade or so. This will be an extremely complex process of economic and social change, requiring a new policy approach aimed at balanced development. There will be many difficulties, but it is what we must accomplish in order to narrow the urban-rural gap.

The service sector will be an increasingly important pillar of our economy. As the biggest job provider, the sector helps ease employment pressure in economic transformation. The government will improve public services. This year, we have suspended value added tax and sales tax on many small businesses, the majority of which are in the service sector.

Our government has defined the 「upper and lower limits」 of the reasonable range of economic performance with a view to avoiding excessive fluctuations. With a gross domestic product growth rate of around 7.5 per cent, the 「lower limit」 is intended to ensure steady growth and employment. The moderation of economic growth from double-digit figures in the past to 9.3 per cent in 2011, 7.7 per cent in 2012 and then to around 7.5 per cent this year, is the result of both natural economics and our readjustment initiatives.

With the consumer price index at around 3.5 per cent, the 「upper limit」 is meant to prevent inflation. If our economy is kept within this reasonable range and financial risks are effectively forestalled, markets and society will have stable expectations. This year there has also been steady economic progress. In the first half of this year, GDP grew by 7.6 per cent year-on-year. Surveyed unemployment at around 5 per cent and inflation at 2.4 per cent are both within the reasonable and manageable range. However, global uncertainties remain.

The anticipation of the withdrawal of quantitative easing by some major developed countries has led to a massive influx of capital back to developed markets and big fluctuations on the stock and currency markets in many Asian countries.

Some observers even worry about a repeat of the Asian financial turmoil of the late 1990s.

In my view, Asian countries have learnt the lessons from the past and significantly enhanced their capabilities to fend off risks. Thanks to more flexible exchange rate regimes, stronger foreign exchange reserves, the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralisation agreement – a currency swap arrangement – and various bilateral financial arrangements, China is confident that Asian countries are now better placed to cope.

China is still a developing country with a myriad of tasks and challenges. Yet as China』s national strength grows steadily, it will assume greater responsibilities and obligations in international affairs commensurate with its own conditions. We will work with other countries to promote global peace and development. I look forward to the day when the world economy returns to good health. In the meantime, the upgrading of the Chinese economy will give fresh impetus to the global economy.

The writer is the premier of China.

      責任編輯:阿雅
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